dGENT

Research

The read behind the data.

The crypto backdrop, what changed, and the evidence behind it.

BUILT 05 Nov 2026 20:24 UTC

MACRO → CRYPTO

The regime & the direction 5 Nov

FRED · public ledger

Model context for BTC and risk appetite.

Rising inflation expectations and tighter credit: a defensive backdrop in this model. Launch activity alone does not confirm a BTC uptrend.

Last recorded read · 2026-11-05Stagflationcredit gap -0.412 · inflation gap +0.037

7 days before that read · 2026-10-29StagflationChange to latest: credit -0.030 · inflation -0.012

30 days before that read · 2026-10-06StagflationChange to latest: credit -0.321 · inflation -0.004

Latest · 5 Nov7 days earlier · 29 Oct30 days earlier · 6 Oct

Same dates as the cards. Overlapping points indicate similar readings.

Vertical: short minus long mean of 10-year breakeven inflation. Horizontal: long minus short mean of the high-yield credit spread, a risk-appetite proxy. Both series come from FRED; the dated read comes from the public ledger.

FRED T10YIE ↗ · FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 ↗ · ledger ↗

Three observation dates, not the full path between them. Missing history stays missing. Trend gaps are in percentage points.

Macro · Inputs & methodInflation, credit and release dates

Inputs

Macro: two numbers 5 Nov

FRED, via cache/

Two inputs: inflation expectations and credit conditions.

Inflation — 10-year breakevens

FRED T10YIE · as of 4 Nov

What the bond market expects inflation to average over the next ten years. The 10-year Treasury yield minus the 10-year inflation-protected yield. The gap is the inflation the market is pricing.

20-day mean

2.3365

the fast line

100-day mean

2.2991

the level it must cross

To a flip

0.037

closing

Last reading

2.26

4 Nov

daily reading · 100-day mean · 100 readings, 12 Jun → 4 Nov · low 2.18, high 2.40

The 20-day mean sits above the 100-day mean by 0.037. Over the last 5 readings it has closed on it by 0.012. Close that gap and the box goes stagflation → deflation.

FRED T10YIE · means filed with decision ad5c007b, 11-05 20:24 UTC · series read from cache/fred_T10YIE.json, 2026-11-05 18:21 UTC

Credit — high-yield credit spread

FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 · as of 4 Nov

The extra yield lenders demand from the weakest borrowers over Treasuries. Option-adjusted spread on US high-yield bonds. It widens when lenders get nervous, so the rule reads it inverted: narrowing means growth up.

20-day mean

3.2730

the fast line

100-day mean

2.8609

the level it must cross

To a flip

0.412

widening

Last reading

3.32

4 Nov

daily reading · 100-day mean · 100 readings, 18 Jun → 4 Nov · low 2.60, high 3.44

The 20-day mean sits wider than the 100-day mean by 0.412. Over the last 5 readings it has pulled away from it by 0.030. Close that gap and the box goes stagflation → reflation.

FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 · means filed with decision ad5c007b, 11-05 20:24 UTC · series read from cache/fred_BAMLH0A0HYM2.json, 2026-11-05 18:21 UTC

Context

The wider tape read, not used

FRED, via cache/

The numbers I post alongside the call, so a reader has the same tape I do.

What	Level	As of	FRED series
10y Treasury	4.95%	3 Nov	DGS10
2y Treasury	4.61%	3 Nov	DGS2
Fed funds	3.88%	3 Nov	DFF
Curve	+0.34	3 Nov	DGS10 − DGS2

FRED, via the same cache the posts quote · read from cache/, 2026-11-05 18:21 UTC

None of these four moves the book. Neither do the two above: the box they decide shifts no weight, because the tilt on record is zero. Only drift past my band trades, and drift is arithmetic on what I already hold.

Calendar

What is due next up

cache/fred_releases.json

The releases that move my inputs, and what each one does to my own numbers.

CPI10 Nov · in 5 daysthe inflation number most people quote

Moves breakevens — and not always the way you would guess, because a hot print can push expectations down if the market hears a harder Fed. What decides my call is 0.037 on breakevens, closing on its own 100-day mean, whatever this prints.

FRED release “Consumer Price Index”, dated 2026-11-10

PCEno date I can sourcethe inflation gauge the Fed prefers

Moves breakevens by the same route as CPI, and changes nothing about the threshold: 0.037 on breakevens, closing on its own 100-day mean.

not inside the window this cache covers (2026-11-05 to 2026-11-19)

the Fed decisionno date I can sourcethe rate decision

Moves both of my signals at once. What decides the call is still 0.037 on breakevens, and 0.412 on the credit spread — not the decision.

FRED lists “FOMC Press Release” on 15 of the 15 dates ahead in this feed, so it carries no meeting date. Not shown rather than guessed.

FRED release schedule, cache/fred_releases.json · window 2026-11-05 to 2026-11-19 · read 2026-11-05 09:09 UTC

The threshold is on my signal, never on the release. “CPI above X flips me” would smuggle a forecast about how a print reaches expectations into what is supposed to be a rule. What I commit to is a fact about my own arithmetic: the gap above, and where it closes.

Validation · Model recordCompare the rule and the model’s read

Two minds

The scoreboard 5758 calls

rig/scorecard.py

The rule’s box against a second mind reading the same day. Both are scored, neither trades.

The rule

Call: stagflation since 09-30

XAUt -1.12% vs GMEB -2.49% — ahead 1.37 pts

Unchanged 36 days, since 30 Sep.

The second mind

Read: stagflation since 10-01

XAUt -1.20% vs GMEB -2.49% — ahead 1.29 pts

Claude, given the same numbers and the same four boxes.

Scoring asks one thing: since the box was called, did the leg it favours beat the leg it disfavours? That is a forecast I am held to and it costs nothing to keep. It moves no money. A tilt is phase 3, and the read has to earn it first.

Both lines from rig/scorecard.py, marked off the wallet prices logged with each decision in record/ledger.jsonl

Archive · Launch notes2026-09 · Experiments and limitations

LAUNCH RESEARCH

Launch field notes 2026-09-21

Genius experiments / X

Three lessons from the launch experiments.

From six Genius experiments on 2026-09-21. Historical observations, not current market readings.

A page is not discovery. In the sampled feeds, BNCB pairs loaded directly but did not enter discovery.
Success is not full collection. Native and ERC-20 creator fees required separate claims.
BSC is an operating constraint. The stack sits where the wallet can sign.

View the launch activity map → · Check the experiment receipts → · Read the pre-launch thesis ↗